Combat Edge Intelligence

Kazuhiro Nakamura vs Lyoto Machida

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-13-0Record26-12-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'1"
TBDReach74"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Yoshida DojoTeamAPAM

What's at stake

Lyoto Machida is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Kazuhiro Nakamura carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Kazuhiro NakamuraNow 1635
If they win+14→ 1649
If they lose-10→ 1625
Lyoto MachidaNow 1685
If they win+10→ 1695
If they lose-14→ 1671

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1509 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.05
Sig. strikes / min
2.59
39%
Strike accuracy
53%
23.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.57
59%
Strike defense
62%
1.50
Takedown avg.
1.21
20%
Takedown accuracy
65%
43%
Takedown defense
76%
0
Submission avg.
0.40

Trajectory

Kazuhiro NakamuraLyoto Machida
165017002013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

5 (24%)
KO/TKO
11 (42%)
3 (14%)
Submission
2 (8%)
13 (62%)
Decision
13 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Lyoto Machida60%
Kazuhiro Nakamura 40%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Lyoto Machida a 60% favorite over Kazuhiro Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Lyoto Machida holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1635, a 50-point edge.

Lyoto Machida enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Kazuhiro Nakamura finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, Lyoto Machida 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.