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Combat Edge Intelligence

Kazuhiro Nakamura vs Sullivan Cauley

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

21-13-0Record8-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height6'1"
TBDReach76"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Yoshida DojoTeamDan's Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kazuhiro NakamuraNow 1638
If they win+12→ 1650
If they lose-12→ 1626
Sullivan CauleyNow 1637
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-16→ 1621

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1521 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1592 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

1.05
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
39%
Strike accuracy
Not available
23.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
59%
Strike defense
Not available
1.50
Takedown avg.
Not available
20%
Takedown accuracy
Not available
43%
Takedown defense
Not available
0
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Kazuhiro NakamuraSullivan Cauley
1600165020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (24%)
KO/TKO
6 (75%)
3 (14%)
Submission
1 (13%)
13 (62%)
Decision
1 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Sullivan Cauley69%
Kazuhiro Nakamura 31%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Sullivan Cauley a 69% favorite over Kazuhiro Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kazuhiro Nakamura's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1638 vs 1637), separated by just 1 points.

Sullivan Cauley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Kazuhiro Nakamura finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, Sullivan Cauley 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.