Kazuki Tokudome vs Wilson Varela
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-12-1Record14-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height6'0"
TBDReach75.6"
156 lbsWeight154 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1613
If they lose-12→ 1589
If they win+16→ 1617
If they lose-16→ 1585
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1555 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1576 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kazuki TokudomeWilson Varela
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Wilson Varela74%
Kazuki Tokudome 26%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Wilson Varela a 74% favorite over Kazuki Tokudome in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kazuki Tokudome's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1601 vs 1601), separated by just 0 points.
Kazuki Tokudome finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Wilson Varela 85%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.