Keigo Kunihara vs Marcio Cruz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-2-0Record8-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'4"
TBDReachTBD
228 lbsWeight205 lbs
TeamGracie Fusion
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+25→ 1598
If they lose-23→ 1550
If they win+16→ 1598
If they lose-16→ 1566
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1483 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Keigo KuniharaMarcio Cruz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Keigo Kunihara52%
Marcio Cruz 48%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Keigo Kunihara a 52% favorite over Marcio Cruz in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marcio Cruz's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1573 vs 1582), separated by just 9 points.
Keigo Kunihara enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Keigo Kunihara finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Marcio Cruz 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.