Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-1-0Record10-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'7"
70"Reach66"
146 lbsWeight145 lbs
EXFIGHTTeamFreestyle MMA
What's at stake
Keiichiro Nakamura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Sebastian Szalay carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1695
If they lose-25→ 1647
If they win+17→ 1673
If they lose-15→ 1641
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1520 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1532 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Keiichiro NakamuraSebastian Szalay
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Keiichiro Nakamura60%
Sebastian Szalay 40%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Keiichiro Nakamura a 60% favorite over Sebastian Szalay in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Keiichiro Nakamura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1672 to 1656, a 16-point edge.
Keiichiro Nakamura enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Keiichiro Nakamura finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Sebastian Szalay 30%.
Keiichiro Nakamura carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.