Keita Nakamura vs Kyle Noke
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
36-12-2Record22-10-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'1"
73,0"Reach76,0"
156 lbsWeight170 lbs
United Gym TokyoTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Keita Nakamura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Kyle Noke carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1703
If they lose-14→ 1679
If they win+14→ 1654
If they lose-10→ 1630
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1637 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1661 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Keita NakamuraKyle Noke
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Keita Nakamura73%
Kyle Noke 27%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Keita Nakamura a 73% favorite over Kyle Noke in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Keita Nakamura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1693 to 1640, a 53-point edge.
Kyle Noke enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Keita Nakamura finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Kyle Noke 73%.
Keita Nakamura and Kyle Noke share 1 common opponent: Alex Morono.
Kyle Noke carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.