Keita Nakamura vs Kyle Noke
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-12-2Record22-10-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'1"
73,0"Reach76,0"
156 lbsWeight170 lbs
United Gym TokyoTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Keita Nakamura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Kyle Noke carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1702
If they lose-14→ 1678
If they win+14→ 1655
If they lose-10→ 1631
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1638 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1661 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Keita NakamuraKyle Noke
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Keita Nakamura65%
Kyle Noke 35%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Keita Nakamura a 65% favorite over Kyle Noke in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Keita Nakamura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1692 to 1641, a 51-point edge.
Kyle Noke enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Keita Nakamura finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Kyle Noke 73%.
Keita Nakamura and Kyle Noke share 1 common opponent: Alex Morono.
Kyle Noke carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.