Combat Edge Intelligence

Keita Nakamura vs Rob Emerson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Rob Emerson
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Rob Emerson

“The Saint”

21-15-0BantamweightGP

1476Average

Tale of the tape

36-12-2Record21-15-0
LightweightDivisionBantamweight
5'11"Height5'8"
73,0"ReachTBD
156 lbsWeight135 lbs
United Gym TokyoTeamMMA Lab

What's at stake

Keita Nakamura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Rob Emerson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Keita NakamuraNow 1693
If they win+5→ 1698
If they lose-19→ 1674
Rob EmersonNow 1476
If they win+25→ 1501
If they lose-7→ 1469

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1637 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1592 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.23
Sig. strikes / min
2.50
37%
Strike accuracy
31%
3.20
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.83
59%
Strike defense
65%
1.65
Takedown avg.
2.02
49%
Takedown accuracy
53%
64%
Takedown defense
66%
0.35
Submission avg.
0.40

Trajectory

Keita NakamuraRob Emerson
1500160017002018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

9 (25%)
KO/TKO
6 (29%)
16 (44%)
Submission
7 (33%)
11 (31%)
Decision
8 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Keita Nakamura83%
Rob Emerson 17%Elo baseline: 78%

The Combat Edge model makes Keita Nakamura a 83% favorite over Rob Emerson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (78%).

Keita Nakamura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1693 to 1476, a 217-point edge.

Keita Nakamura finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Rob Emerson 62%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.