Combat Edge Intelligence

Keita Nakamura vs Sultan Aliev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

36-12-2Record15-3-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
73,0"Reach40,0"
156 lbsWeight170 lbs
United Gym TokyoTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Keita NakamuraNow 1693
If they win+12→ 1705
If they lose-12→ 1681
Sultan AlievNow 1690
If they win+16→ 1706
If they lose-16→ 1674

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1637 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1592 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.23
Sig. strikes / min
1.41
37%
Strike accuracy
46%
3.20
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.20
59%
Strike defense
57%
1.65
Takedown avg.
1.76
49%
Takedown accuracy
38%
64%
Takedown defense
100%
0.35
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Keita NakamuraSultan Aliev
170020172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

9 (25%)
KO/TKO
10 (67%)
16 (44%)
Submission
0 (0%)
11 (31%)
Decision
5 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Sultan Aliev60%
Keita Nakamura 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Sultan Aliev a 60% favorite over Keita Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Keita Nakamura's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1693 vs 1690), separated by just 3 points.

Keita Nakamura finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Sultan Aliev 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.