Keita Nakamura vs Tom Breese
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-12-2Record21-8-0
LightweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height6'3"
73,0"Reach73.5"
156 lbsWeight205 lbs
United Gym TokyoTeamTeam Renegade· 1736 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1704
If they lose-12→ 1680
If they win+12→ 1693
If they lose-12→ 1669
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1638 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Keita NakamuraTom Breese
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Breese54%
Keita Nakamura 46%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Breese a 54% favorite over Keita Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Keita Nakamura's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1692 vs 1681), separated by just 11 points.
Keita Nakamura finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Tom Breese 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.