Combat Edge Intelligence

Keita Nakamura vs Tom Breese

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

36-12-2Record18-5-0
LightweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height6'3"
73,0"ReachTBD
156 lbsWeight205 lbs
United Gym TokyoTeamTeam Renegade

What's at stake

Keita Nakamura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Tom Breese carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Keita NakamuraNow 1693
If they win+11→ 1704
If they lose-13→ 1680
Tom BreeseNow 1662
If they win+13→ 1675
If they lose-11→ 1651

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1637 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.23
Sig. strikes / min
3.34
37%
Strike accuracy
51%
3.20
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.81
59%
Strike defense
61%
1.65
Takedown avg.
0
49%
Takedown accuracy
0%
64%
Takedown defense
71%
0.35
Submission avg.
1.07

Trajectory

Keita NakamuraTom Breese
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (25%)
KO/TKO
5 (28%)
16 (44%)
Submission
12 (67%)
11 (31%)
Decision
1 (6%)

Combat Edge model read

Tom Breese59%
Keita Nakamura 41%Elo baseline: 46%

The Combat Edge model makes Tom Breese a 59% favorite over Keita Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Keita Nakamura's way (46%).

Keita Nakamura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1693 to 1662, a 31-point edge.

Tom Breese enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Keita Nakamura finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Tom Breese 94%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.