Keith Jardine vs Mahamed Aly
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-11-2Record5-2-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReach77"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamOne Way Martial Arts
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1583
If they lose-16→ 1551
If they win+24→ 1591
If they lose-24→ 1543
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1677 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1537 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Keith JardineMahamed Aly
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Keith Jardine54%
Mahamed Aly 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Keith Jardine a 54% favorite over Mahamed Aly in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1567 vs 1567), separated by just 0 points.
Keith Jardine enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Keith Jardine finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Mahamed Aly 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.