Keith Jardine vs Stephan Bonnar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-11-2Record15-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
TBDReach79"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamOne Kick's Gym
What's at stake
Stephan Bonnar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Keith Jardine carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1588
If they lose-14→ 1556
If they win+14→ 1627
If they lose-18→ 1595
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1683 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Keith JardineStephan Bonnar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Stephan Bonnar70%
Keith Jardine 30%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Stephan Bonnar a 70% favorite over Keith Jardine in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Stephan Bonnar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1613 to 1570, a 43-point edge.
Keith Jardine enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Stephan Bonnar enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Keith Jardine finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Stephan Bonnar 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.