Keith Jardine vs Thiago Silva
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-11-2Record21-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight223 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Thiago Silva is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Keith Jardine carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1587
If they lose-15→ 1555
If they win+11→ 1611
If they lose-13→ 1587
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1683 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Keith JardineThiago Silva
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thiago Silva60%
Keith Jardine 40%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Silva a 60% favorite over Keith Jardine in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Thiago Silva holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1600 to 1570, a 30-point edge.
Keith Jardine enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Keith Jardine finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Silva 76%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.