Keith Jardine vs Wilson Gouveia
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-11-2Record14-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight219 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Wilson Gouveia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Keith Jardine carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1584
If they lose-15→ 1552
If they win+15→ 1601
If they lose-17→ 1569
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1677 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Keith JardineWilson Gouveia
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Keith Jardine57%
Wilson Gouveia 43%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Keith Jardine a 57% favorite over Wilson Gouveia in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Wilson Gouveia's way (47%).
Wilson Gouveia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1586 to 1567, a 19-point edge.
Keith Jardine enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Wilson Gouveia enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Keith Jardine finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Wilson Gouveia 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.