Keith Mielke vs Marcio Alexandre Junior
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-5-0Record16-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
TBDTeamAstra Fight Team
What's at stake
Marcio Alexandre Junior is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +20 while a loss costs more — Keith Mielke carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+28→ 1438
If they lose-20→ 1390
If they win+20→ 1487
If they lose-28→ 1439
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1540 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Keith MielkeMarcio Alexandre Junior
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcio Alexandre Junior60%
Keith Mielke 40%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcio Alexandre Junior a 60% favorite over Keith Mielke in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Marcio Alexandre Junior holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1467 to 1410, a 57-point edge.
Keith Mielke enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Marcio Alexandre Junior enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marcio Alexandre Junior 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.