Keith Mielke vs Marcio Alexandre Junior
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-5-0Record16-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
TeamAstra Fight Team· 1573 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Marcio Alexandre Junior is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Keith Mielke carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+26→ 1436
If they lose-22→ 1388
If they win+22→ 1458
If they lose-26→ 1410
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1540 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Keith MielkeMarcio Alexandre Junior
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcio Alexandre Junior59%
Keith Mielke 41%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcio Alexandre Junior a 59% favorite over Keith Mielke in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Marcio Alexandre Junior holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1436 to 1410, a 26-point edge.
Keith Mielke enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Marcio Alexandre Junior enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Marcio Alexandre Junior 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.