Combat Edge Intelligence

Keith Mielke vs Ondřej Raška

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

0-5-0Record12-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'2"
TBDReach-
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
TBDTeamJetsaam Gym Brno

What's at stake

Ondřej Raška is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Keith Mielke carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Keith MielkeNow 1410
If they win+28→ 1438
If they lose-20→ 1390
Ondřej RaškaNow 1466
If they win+13→ 1479
If they lose-19→ 1447

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1540 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Keith MielkeOndřej Raška
140014501500200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
3 (25%)
0 (0%)
Submission
5 (42%)
0 (0%)
Decision
4 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Ondřej Raška72%
Keith Mielke 28%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Ondřej Raška a 72% favorite over Keith Mielke in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Ondřej Raška holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1466 to 1410, a 56-point edge.

Keith Mielke enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Ondřej Raška 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.