Keith Mielke vs Sam Adkins
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-5-0Record7-20-2
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'9"Height6'3"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight225 lbs
TBDTeamTBD
What's at stake
Keith Mielke is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Sam Adkins carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1431
If they lose-27→ 1383
If they win+14→ 1380
If they lose-10→ 1356
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1540 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Keith MielkeSam Adkins
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Keith Mielke70%
Sam Adkins 30%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Keith Mielke a 70% favorite over Sam Adkins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Keith Mielke holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1410 to 1366, a 44-point edge.
Keith Mielke enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Sam Adkins enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Sam Adkins 71%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.