Combat Edge Intelligence

Keith Wisniewski vs Nick Thompson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-15-1Record38-14-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Duneland Vale TudoTeamMinnesota Martial Arts Academy

What's at stake

Nick Thompson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Keith Wisniewski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Keith WisniewskiNow 1606
If they win+14→ 1620
If they lose-10→ 1596
Nick ThompsonNow 1657
If they win+10→ 1667
If they lose-14→ 1643

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1561 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.32
Sig. strikes / min
2.53
52%
Strike accuracy
44%
4.86
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.58
43%
Strike defense
50%
1.57
Takedown avg.
1.52
40%
Takedown accuracy
100%
79%
Takedown defense
36%
0.26
Submission avg.
2.28

Trajectory

Keith WisniewskiNick Thompson
160016501700175020092010201120122013

Win method breakdown

6 (21%)
KO/TKO
14 (37%)
15 (54%)
Submission
18 (47%)
7 (25%)
Decision
6 (16%)

Combat Edge model read

Nick Thompson53%
Keith Wisniewski 47%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Nick Thompson a 53% favorite over Keith Wisniewski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Nick Thompson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1657 to 1606, a 51-point edge.

Keith Wisniewski enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Nick Thompson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Keith Wisniewski finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Nick Thompson 84%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.