Keito Oyama vs Noeru Narita
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Noeru Narita56%
Keito Oyama 44%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Noeru Narita a 56% favorite over Keito Oyama in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Keito Oyama's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1547 vs 1539), separated by just 8 points.
Keito Oyama enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Keito Oyama finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Noeru Narita 75%.
Keito Oyama and Noeru Narita share 2 common opponents: Bo Mi Lee and Moeri Suda.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
11-8-0Record4-3-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'5"Height5'1"
61.8"Reach-
112 lbsWeight108 lbs
Freelance· 1571 avg Elo · 12 ratedTeamDELiGHTWORKS
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1563
If they lose-16→ 1531
If they win+25→ 1564
If they lose-23→ 1516
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1518 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1525 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Keito OyamaNoeru Narita
Win method breakdown
Common opponents (2)
WinDecision (Unanimous) · 2025
WinSubmission (Guillotine Choke) · 2026