Kelly Dullanty vs Matt Serra
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-2-0Record11-7-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'6"
TBDReach68"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
TeamSerra-Longo Fight Team· 1771 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Matt Serra is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Kelly Dullanty carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+29→ 1555
If they lose-19→ 1507
If they win+12→ 1617
If they lose-20→ 1585
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1507 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kelly DullantyMatt Serra
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Serra66%
Kelly Dullanty 34%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Serra a 66% favorite over Kelly Dullanty in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Matt Serra holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1605 to 1526, a 79-point edge.
Kelly Dullanty enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kelly Dullanty finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Matt Serra 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.