Kelvin Gastelum vs Rick Story
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-11-0Record21-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
71"Reach40,0"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Rick Story is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Kelvin Gastelum carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1707
If they lose-10→ 1683
If they win+10→ 1754
If they lose-14→ 1730
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1641 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kelvin GastelumRick Story
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kelvin Gastelum54%
Rick Story 46%Elo baseline: 43%
The Combat Edge model makes Kelvin Gastelum a 54% favorite over Rick Story in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rick Story's way (43%).
Rick Story holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1693, a 51-point edge.
Kelvin Gastelum finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Rick Story 43%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.