Kelvin Martinez vs Mason Hartshorn
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Mason Hartshorn59%
Kelvin Martinez 41%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Mason Hartshorn a 59% favorite over Kelvin Martinez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Mason Hartshorn holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1621 to 1540, a 81-point edge.
Mason Hartshorn enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Kelvin Martinez finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Mason Hartshorn 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
5-3-0Record8-2-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'4"
-Reach-
125 lbsWeight136 lbs
TeamTeam Black
What's at stake
Mason Hartshorn is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Kelvin Martinez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+29→ 1569
If they lose-19→ 1521
If they win+12→ 1633
If they lose-20→ 1601
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1508 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1501 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kelvin MartinezMason Hartshorn