Kenan Song vs Lucas Gabriel
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-9-0Record11-1-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
71"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamNova Uniao Phuket
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1689
If they lose-12→ 1665
If they win+16→ 1691
If they lose-16→ 1659
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1667 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1518 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kenan SongLucas Gabriel
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Gabriel71%
Kenan Song 29%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Gabriel a 71% favorite over Kenan Song in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kenan Song's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1677 vs 1675), separated by just 2 points.
Lucas Gabriel enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Kenan Song finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Gabriel 55%.
Lucas Gabriel carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.