Kengo Ura vs Nathan Trepagnier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-13-2Record5-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'7"
TBDReach67"
155 lbsWeight160 lbs
IngramTeamAcademy of Martial Arts
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1504
If they lose-12→ 1480
If they win+15→ 1520
If they lose-17→ 1488
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1504 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kengo UraNathan Trepagnier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nathan Trepagnier72%
Kengo Ura 28%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Trepagnier a 72% favorite over Kengo Ura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1492 vs 1505), separated by just 13 points.
Kengo Ura enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Kengo Ura finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Nathan Trepagnier 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.