Kenji Arai vs Kyohei Hagiwara
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-15-5Record9-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReach71.1"
144 lbsWeight145 lbs
PANCRASEismTeamTeam Smoker
What's at stake
Kyohei Hagiwara is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Kenji Arai carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1475
If they lose-11→ 1451
If they win+15→ 1495
If they lose-17→ 1463
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1491 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kenji AraiKyohei Hagiwara
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kyohei Hagiwara70%
Kenji Arai 30%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Kyohei Hagiwara a 70% favorite over Kenji Arai in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Kyohei Hagiwara holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1480 to 1462, a 18-point edge.
Kenji Arai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kyohei Hagiwara enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Kenji Arai finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Kyohei Hagiwara 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.