Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Paul Craig
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-6-1Record17-10-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'5"Height6'4"
83"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Fortis MMATeamScottish Hit Squad
What's at stake
Kennedy Nzechukwu is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Paul Craig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1700
If they lose-17→ 1668
If they win+13→ 1675
If they lose-11→ 1651
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1646 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1714 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kennedy NzechukwuPaul Craig
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kennedy Nzechukwu70%
Paul Craig 30%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Kennedy Nzechukwu a 70% favorite over Paul Craig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Kennedy Nzechukwu holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1662, a 23-point edge.
Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Kennedy Nzechukwu finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Paul Craig 100%.
Kennedy Nzechukwu carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.