Combat Edge Intelligence

Kenneth Alexander vs Nathan Trepagnier

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-6-0Record5-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'7"
TBDReach67"
154 lbsWeight160 lbs
Bad Boy USATeamAcademy of Martial Arts

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kenneth AlexanderNow 1494
If they win+17→ 1511
If they lose-15→ 1479
Nathan TrepagnierNow 1505
If they win+15→ 1520
If they lose-17→ 1488

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1501 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.88
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
19%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.20
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
67%
Strike defense
TBD
4.71
Takedown avg.
TBD
26%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Kenneth AlexanderNathan Trepagnier
1500201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (43%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
2 (29%)
Submission
2 (40%)
2 (29%)
Decision
2 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Nathan Trepagnier63%
Kenneth Alexander 37%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Trepagnier a 63% favorite over Kenneth Alexander in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1494 vs 1505), separated by just 11 points.

Kenneth Alexander finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Nathan Trepagnier 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.