Combat Edge Intelligence

Kenny Robertson vs Roan Carneiro

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-7-0Record21-13-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'11"
74,0"Reach74,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Central Illinois Combat ClubTeamAmerican Top Team Atlanta

What's at stake

Roan Carneiro is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Kenny Robertson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Kenny RobertsonNow 1636
If they win+19→ 1655
If they lose-13→ 1623
Roan CarneiroNow 1700
If they win+10→ 1710
If they lose-14→ 1686

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1632 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1635 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.72
Sig. strikes / min
1.46
47%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.02
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.82
52%
Strike defense
63%
1.37
Takedown avg.
3.05
27%
Takedown accuracy
42%
57%
Takedown defense
83%
0.85
Submission avg.
1.45

Trajectory

Kenny RobertsonRoan Carneiro
165017002018201920202021

Win method breakdown

4 (27%)
KO/TKO
3 (14%)
9 (60%)
Submission
9 (43%)
2 (13%)
Decision
9 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Roan Carneiro59%
Kenny Robertson 41%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Roan Carneiro a 59% favorite over Kenny Robertson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Roan Carneiro holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1700 to 1636, a 64-point edge.

Kenny Robertson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Kenny Robertson finishes 87% of wins inside the distance, Roan Carneiro 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.