Combat Edge Intelligence

Kestutis Smirnovas vs Sullivan Cauley

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-8-2Record8-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'10"Height6'1"
TBDReach76"
198 lbsWeight205 lbs
Audra GymTeamDan's Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kestutis SmirnovasNow 1631
If they win+12→ 1643
If they lose-12→ 1619
Sullivan CauleyNow 1633
If they win+16→ 1649
If they lose-16→ 1617

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1535 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1586 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Kestutis SmirnovasSullivan Cauley
160016502014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (13%)
KO/TKO
6 (75%)
14 (61%)
Submission
1 (13%)
6 (26%)
Decision
1 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Sullivan Cauley63%
Kestutis Smirnovas 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Sullivan Cauley a 63% favorite over Kestutis Smirnovas in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1631 vs 1633), separated by just 2 points.

Sullivan Cauley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Kestutis Smirnovas finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Sullivan Cauley 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.