Kevin Aguilar vs Melquizael Costa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record26-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'10"
TBDReach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Longview MMATeamChute Boxe Joao Emilio
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1701
If they lose-16→ 1669
If they win+12→ 1694
If they lose-12→ 1670
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kevin AguilarMelquizael Costa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Melquizael Costa63%
Kevin Aguilar 37%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Melquizael Costa a 63% favorite over Kevin Aguilar in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kevin Aguilar's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1685 vs 1682), separated by just 3 points.
Kevin Aguilar enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Kevin Aguilar finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Melquizael Costa 65%.
Kevin Aguilar and Melquizael Costa share 1 common opponent: Dan Ige.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.