Kevin Aguilar vs Tucker Lutz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record12-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'8"
TBDReach72"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Longview MMATeamGround Control
What's at stake
Kevin Aguilar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Tucker Lutz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1699
If they lose-18→ 1667
If they win+18→ 1663
If they lose-14→ 1631
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1574 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kevin AguilarTucker Lutz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Kevin Aguilar and Tucker Lutz within a point of even.
Kevin Aguilar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1645, a 40-point edge.
Kevin Aguilar enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Tucker Lutz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Kevin Aguilar finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Tucker Lutz 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.