Kevin Burns vs Roan Carneiro
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-7-0Record21-13-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReach74,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Grudge Training CenterTeamAmerican Top Team Atlanta
What's at stake
Roan Carneiro is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Kevin Burns carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1601
If they lose-11→ 1569
If they win+8→ 1710
If they lose-16→ 1686
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1499 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kevin BurnsRoan Carneiro
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Roan Carneiro71%
Kevin Burns 29%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Roan Carneiro a 71% favorite over Kevin Burns in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Roan Carneiro holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1702 to 1580, a 122-point edge.
Kevin Burns finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Roan Carneiro 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.