Combat Edge Intelligence

Kevin Burns vs TJ Grant

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →
Kevin Burns
us

Kevin Burns

“The Fire”

12-7-0WelterweightVFC

1580Solid

Tale of the tape

12-7-0Record21-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Grudge Training CenterTeamFit Plus

What's at stake

TJ Grant is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Kevin Burns carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Kevin BurnsNow 1580
If they win+19→ 1599
If they lose-13→ 1567
TJ GrantNow 1653
If they win+13→ 1666
If they lose-19→ 1634

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1499 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.74
Sig. strikes / min
3.95
39%
Strike accuracy
54%
4.30
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.21
53%
Strike defense
57%
0.28
Takedown avg.
1.63
50%
Takedown accuracy
44%
48%
Takedown defense
37%
0.85
Submission avg.
0.58

Trajectory

Kevin BurnsTJ Grant
155016001650201120122013

Win method breakdown

3 (25%)
KO/TKO
4 (19%)
8 (67%)
Submission
13 (62%)
1 (8%)
Decision
4 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

TJ Grant75%
Kevin Burns 25%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes TJ Grant a 75% favorite over Kevin Burns in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

TJ Grant holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1653 to 1580, a 73-point edge.

TJ Grant enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Kevin Burns finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, TJ Grant 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.