Kevin Caperna vs Nick Garcia
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-3-0Record9-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'2"Height5'4"
TBDReach70,0"
126 lbsWeight125 lbs
Aurora MMA· 1567 avg Elo · 13 ratedTeamBlackline MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1500
If they lose-24→ 1452
If they win+24→ 1503
If they lose-24→ 1455
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kevin CapernaNick Garcia
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nick Garcia59%
Kevin Caperna 41%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Nick Garcia a 59% favorite over Kevin Caperna in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1476 vs 1479), separated by just 3 points.
Kevin Caperna enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Nick Garcia 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.