Kevin Carrier vs Steve Collins
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-2-0Record7-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'10"
74"Reach-
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Ultimate AthleticsTeamGilbert Grappling· 1560 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Steve Collins is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +19 while a loss costs more — Kevin Carrier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+29→ 1602
If they lose-19→ 1554
If they win+19→ 1669
If they lose-29→ 1621
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1512 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kevin CarrierSteve Collins
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Steve Collins64%
Kevin Carrier 36%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Steve Collins a 64% favorite over Kevin Carrier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Steve Collins holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1650 to 1573, a 77-point edge.
Steve Collins enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Kevin Carrier finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Steve Collins 43%.
Kevin Carrier and Steve Collins share 2 common opponents: Kelton Sneve and Kyle Pufahl.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (2)
LossDecision (Unanimous) · 2025
WinTKO (Punches) · 2025