Combat Edge Intelligence

Kevin Casey vs Sam Alvey

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Sam Alvey
us

Sam Alvey

“Smile'n”

34-18-1MiddleweightB2FS

1640Solid

Tale of the tape

9-6-2Record34-18-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'2"
77,0"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Black HouseTeamTeam Quest

What's at stake

Sam Alvey is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Kevin Casey carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Kevin CaseyNow 1579
If they win+19→ 1598
If they lose-13→ 1566
Sam AlveyNow 1640
If they win+10→ 1650
If they lose-14→ 1626

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1664 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.27
Sig. strikes / min
3.28
54%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.76
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.63
46%
Strike defense
53%
0.79
Takedown avg.
0.06
22%
Takedown accuracy
14%
27%
Takedown defense
82%
0.40
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Kevin CaseySam Alvey
16001650170020162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

3 (33%)
KO/TKO
20 (59%)
3 (33%)
Submission
3 (9%)
3 (33%)
Decision
11 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

Sam Alvey61%
Kevin Casey 39%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Sam Alvey a 61% favorite over Kevin Casey in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Sam Alvey holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1640 to 1579, a 61-point edge.

Kevin Casey finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Sam Alvey 68%.

Kevin Casey carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.