Kevin Fernandez vs Roque Conceicao
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Roque Conceicao58%
Kevin Fernandez 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Roque Conceicao a 58% favorite over Kevin Fernandez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kevin Fernandez's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1671 vs 1671), separated by just 0 points.
Kevin Fernandez enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Roque Conceicao enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Kevin Fernandez finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Roque Conceicao 92%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
10-1-0Record12-3-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'5"
68"Reach68"
131 lbsWeight125 lbs
TeamCruel Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1687
If they lose-16→ 1655
If they win+16→ 1687
If they lose-16→ 1655
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1499 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1531 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kevin FernandezRoque Conceicao