Combat Edge Intelligence

Kevin Holland vs Khamzat Chimaev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-15-0Record15-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'2"
81"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Phalanx MMA AcademyTeamAllstars Training Center

What's at stake

Khamzat Chimaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Kevin Holland carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Kevin HollandNow 1736
If they win+15→ 1751
If they lose-9→ 1727
Khamzat ChimaevNow 1828
If they win+12→ 1840
If they lose-20→ 1808

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1740 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.24
Sig. strikes / min
4.01
50%
Strike accuracy
54%
3.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.98
50%
Strike defense
52%
0.79
Takedown avg.
5.32
0%
Takedown accuracy
58%
58%
Takedown defense
88%
0.60
Submission avg.
1.37

Trajectory

Kevin HollandKhamzat Chimaev
175018001850202420252026

Win method breakdown

14 (48%)
KO/TKO
6 (40%)
9 (31%)
Submission
6 (40%)
6 (21%)
Decision
3 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Khamzat Chimaev75%
Kevin Holland 25%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Khamzat Chimaev a 75% favorite over Kevin Holland in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Khamzat Chimaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1828 to 1736, a 92-point edge.

Kevin Holland finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Khamzat Chimaev 80%.

Kevin Holland carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.