Kevin Holland vs Stephen Thompson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-15-0Record17-9-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height6'0"
81"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
Kevin Holland is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Stephen Thompson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1747
If they lose-13→ 1723
If they win+18→ 1720
If they lose-14→ 1688
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1740 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kevin HollandStephen Thompson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kevin Holland75%
Stephen Thompson 25%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Holland a 75% favorite over Stephen Thompson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Kevin Holland holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1736 to 1702, a 34-point edge.
Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Kevin Holland finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Thompson 53%.
Kevin Holland and Stephen Thompson share 1 common opponent: Vicente Luque.
Kevin Holland carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.