Kevin Holland vs Thiago Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-15-0Record22-13-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
81"Reach 76"
185 lbsWeight241 lbs
Phalanx MMA AcademyTeamTeam Marreta
What's at stake
Kevin Holland is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Thiago Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1747
If they lose-13→ 1723
If they win+13→ 1707
If they lose-11→ 1683
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1740 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kevin HollandThiago Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kevin Holland76%
Thiago Santos 24%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Holland a 76% favorite over Thiago Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Kevin Holland holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1736 to 1694, a 42-point edge.
Thiago Santos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Kevin Holland finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.
Kevin Holland carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.