Combat Edge Intelligence

Kevin Holland vs Thiago Santos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-15-0Record22-13-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
81"Reach 76"
185 lbsWeight241 lbs
Phalanx MMA AcademyTeamTeam Marreta

What's at stake

Kevin Holland is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Thiago Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Kevin HollandNow 1736
If they win+10→ 1746
If they lose-14→ 1722
Thiago SantosNow 1674
If they win+14→ 1688
If they lose-10→ 1664

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1741 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.24
Sig. strikes / min
3.72
50%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.57
50%
Strike defense
54%
0.79
Takedown avg.
0.88
0%
Takedown accuracy
33%
58%
Takedown defense
66%
0.60
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Kevin HollandThiago Santos
170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

14 (48%)
KO/TKO
15 (68%)
9 (31%)
Submission
1 (5%)
6 (21%)
Decision
6 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Kevin Holland78%
Thiago Santos 22%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Holland a 78% favorite over Thiago Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Kevin Holland holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1736 to 1674, a 62-point edge.

Thiago Santos enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Kevin Holland finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.

Kevin Holland carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.