Combat Edge Intelligence

Kevin Lee vs Magomed Mustafaev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →
Kevin Lee
us

Kevin Lee

“The Motown Phenom”

20-9-0WelterweightPFL

1711Good

Tale of the tape

20-9-0Record14-3-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
77"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Tristar GymTeamFight Club Akhmat

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kevin LeeNow 1711
If they win+12→ 1723
If they lose-12→ 1699
Magomed MustafaevNow 1699
If they win+17→ 1716
If they lose-15→ 1684

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1710 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1594 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.88
Sig. strikes / min
2.59
42%
Strike accuracy
59%
3.60
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.68
50%
Strike defense
41%
3.18
Takedown avg.
3.31
43%
Takedown accuracy
50%
75%
Takedown defense
23%
0.76
Submission avg.
0.41

Trajectory

Kevin LeeMagomed Mustafaev
1700202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

3 (15%)
KO/TKO
10 (71%)
9 (45%)
Submission
4 (29%)
8 (40%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Kevin Lee56%
Magomed Mustafaev 44%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Lee a 56% favorite over Magomed Mustafaev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1711 vs 1699), separated by just 12 points.

Kevin Lee finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Magomed Mustafaev 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.