Kevin Lee vs Michael Chiesa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
20-9-0Record20-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'1"
77"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tristar GymTeamSikjitsu
What's at stake
Michael Chiesa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Kevin Lee carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1725
If they lose-10→ 1701
If they win+10→ 1768
If they lose-14→ 1744
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1710 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kevin LeeMichael Chiesa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Chiesa70%
Kevin Lee 30%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Chiesa a 70% favorite over Kevin Lee in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Michael Chiesa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1758 to 1711, a 47-point edge.
Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Kevin Lee finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Michael Chiesa 65%.
Kevin Lee and Michael Chiesa share 2 common opponents: Diego Sanchez and Rafael dos Anjos.
Kevin Lee carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.