Kevin Lee vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-9-0Record25-11-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'0"
77"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Tristar GymTeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
Kevin Lee is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Tony Ferguson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1721
If they lose-14→ 1697
If they win+14→ 1673
If they lose-10→ 1649
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1710 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kevin LeeTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kevin Lee78%
Tony Ferguson 22%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Lee a 78% favorite over Tony Ferguson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Kevin Lee holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1711 to 1659, a 52-point edge.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Kevin Lee finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Kevin Lee and Tony Ferguson share 1 common opponent: Charles Oliveira.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.