Combat Edge Intelligence

Kevin Natividad vs Kris Moutinho

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-4-0Record14-8-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'7"
70"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Arizona Combat SportsTeamRivera Athletic Center

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kevin NatividadNow 1588
If they win+16→ 1604
If they lose-16→ 1572
Kris MoutinhoNow 1584
If they win+16→ 1600
If they lose-16→ 1568

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1553 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1535 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.68
Sig. strikes / min
4.51
34%
Strike accuracy
32%
4.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
14.68
48%
Strike defense
29%
3.66
Takedown avg.
0
50%
Takedown accuracy
0%
83%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Kevin NatividadKris Moutinho
155016002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (56%)
KO/TKO
6 (43%)
1 (11%)
Submission
3 (21%)
3 (33%)
Decision
5 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Kevin Natividad and Kris Moutinho within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1588 vs 1584), separated by just 4 points.

Kevin Natividad enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Kris Moutinho enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Kevin Natividad finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Kris Moutinho 64%.

Kevin Natividad carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.