Kevin Natividad vs Miles Johns
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Miles Johns78%
Kevin Natividad 22%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Miles Johns a 78% favorite over Kevin Natividad in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Miles Johns holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1597, a 110-point edge.
Kevin Natividad finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Miles Johns 44%.
Kevin Natividad carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
10-5-0Record16-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'7"
70"Reach66"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Arizona Combat SportsTeamMarathon MMA· 1654 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Miles Johns is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Kevin Natividad carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1618
If they lose-11→ 1586
If they win+11→ 1718
If they lose-21→ 1686
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1553 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1677 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kevin NatividadMiles Johns