Combat Edge Intelligence

Kevin Natividad vs Ricky Turcios

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-4-0Record12-6-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'8"
70"Reach71"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Arizona Combat SportsTeamTeam Alpha Male

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kevin NatividadNow 1604
If they win+15→ 1619
If they lose-17→ 1587
Ricky TurciosNow 1592
If they win+17→ 1609
If they lose-15→ 1577

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1539 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.68
Sig. strikes / min
4.73
34%
Strike accuracy
40%
4.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.72
48%
Strike defense
52%
3.66
Takedown avg.
0.91
50%
Takedown accuracy
20%
83%
Takedown defense
44%
0
Submission avg.
0.36

Trajectory

Kevin NatividadRicky Turcios
16001650202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (56%)
KO/TKO
3 (25%)
1 (11%)
Submission
1 (8%)
3 (33%)
Decision
8 (67%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Kevin Natividad and Ricky Turcios within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1604 vs 1592), separated by just 12 points.

Kevin Natividad enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Ricky Turcios enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Kevin Natividad finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Ricky Turcios 33%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.