Combat Edge Intelligence

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Michael Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-0-0Record24-20-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
70"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fightspirit TeamTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Khabib Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +4 while a loss costs more — Michael Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Khabib NurmagomedovNow 1890
If they win+4→ 1894
If they lose-20→ 1870
Michael JohnsonNow 1613
If they win+20→ 1633
If they lose-4→ 1609

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1722 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1666 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.10
Sig. strikes / min
4.28
49%
Strike accuracy
40%
1.75
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.79
65%
Strike defense
59%
5.32
Takedown avg.
0.58
48%
Takedown accuracy
39%
85%
Takedown defense
81%
0.79
Submission avg.
0.04

Trajectory

Khabib NurmagomedovMichael Johnson
1600170018001900201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (28%)
KO/TKO
10 (42%)
11 (38%)
Submission
2 (8%)
10 (34%)
Decision
12 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Khabib Nurmagomedov84%
Michael Johnson 16%Elo baseline: 83%

The Combat Edge model makes Khabib Nurmagomedov a 84% favorite over Michael Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (83%).

Khabib Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1890 to 1613, a 277-point edge.

Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Khabib Nurmagomedov finishes 66% of wins inside the distance, Michael Johnson 50%.

Michael Johnson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.