Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Rafael dos Anjos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-0-0Record32-18-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
70"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Khabib Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Rafael dos Anjos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1895
If they lose-18→ 1871
If they win+18→ 1716
If they lose-6→ 1692
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1722 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1735 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Khabib NurmagomedovRafael dos Anjos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Khabib Nurmagomedov83%
Rafael dos Anjos 17%Elo baseline: 75%
The Combat Edge model makes Khabib Nurmagomedov a 83% favorite over Rafael dos Anjos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).
Khabib Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1889 to 1698, a 191-point edge.
Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Khabib Nurmagomedov finishes 66% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.