Combat Edge Intelligence

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Rafael dos Anjos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-0-0Record32-17-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
70"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fightspirit TeamTeamRDA Academy

What's at stake

Khabib Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Rafael dos Anjos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Khabib NurmagomedovNow 1890
If they win+6→ 1896
If they lose-18→ 1872
Rafael dos AnjosNow 1713
If they win+18→ 1731
If they lose-6→ 1707

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1722 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.10
Sig. strikes / min
3.48
49%
Strike accuracy
47%
1.75
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.23
65%
Strike defense
60%
5.32
Takedown avg.
1.95
48%
Takedown accuracy
36%
85%
Takedown defense
55%
0.79
Submission avg.
0.57

Trajectory

Khabib NurmagomedovRafael dos Anjos
170017501800185019002018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

8 (28%)
KO/TKO
5 (16%)
11 (38%)
Submission
11 (34%)
10 (34%)
Decision
16 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Khabib Nurmagomedov87%
Rafael dos Anjos 13%Elo baseline: 73%

The Combat Edge model makes Khabib Nurmagomedov a 87% favorite over Rafael dos Anjos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).

Khabib Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1890 to 1713, a 177-point edge.

Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Khabib Nurmagomedov finishes 66% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.