Combat Edge Intelligence

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Thiago Tavares

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-0-0Record24-11-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'7"
70"Reach68,0"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Fightspirit TeamTeamTeam Tavares

What's at stake

Khabib Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Thiago Tavares carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Khabib NurmagomedovNow 1890
If they win+5→ 1895
If they lose-19→ 1871
Thiago TavaresNow 1647
If they win+19→ 1666
If they lose-5→ 1642

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1722 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1588 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.10
Sig. strikes / min
2
49%
Strike accuracy
40%
1.75
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.31
65%
Strike defense
63%
5.32
Takedown avg.
3.83
48%
Takedown accuracy
43%
85%
Takedown defense
63%
0.79
Submission avg.
1.46

Trajectory

Khabib NurmagomedovThiago Tavares
1700180019002018201920202021

Win method breakdown

8 (28%)
KO/TKO
4 (17%)
11 (38%)
Submission
15 (63%)
10 (34%)
Decision
5 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Khabib Nurmagomedov83%
Thiago Tavares 17%Elo baseline: 80%

The Combat Edge model makes Khabib Nurmagomedov a 83% favorite over Thiago Tavares in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (80%).

Khabib Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1890 to 1647, a 243-point edge.

Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Khabib Nurmagomedov finishes 66% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Tavares 79%.

Khabib Nurmagomedov carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.