Combat Edge Intelligence

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Usman Nurmagomedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-0-0Record21-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
70"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fightspirit TeamTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

Khabib Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Usman Nurmagomedov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Khabib NurmagomedovNow 1890
If they win+10→ 1900
If they lose-14→ 1876
Usman NurmagomedovNow 1831
If they win+19→ 1850
If they lose-13→ 1818

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1722 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.10
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
49%
Strike accuracy
TBD
1.75
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
65%
Strike defense
TBD
5.32
Takedown avg.
TBD
48%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
85%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.79
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Khabib NurmagomedovUsman Nurmagomedov
180018501900201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (28%)
KO/TKO
8 (38%)
11 (38%)
Submission
7 (33%)
10 (34%)
Decision
6 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Usman Nurmagomedov60%
Khabib Nurmagomedov 40%Elo baseline: 42%

The Combat Edge model makes Usman Nurmagomedov a 60% favorite over Khabib Nurmagomedov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Khabib Nurmagomedov's way (42%).

Khabib Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1890 to 1831, a 59-point edge.

Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Usman Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Khabib Nurmagomedov finishes 66% of wins inside the distance, Usman Nurmagomedov 71%.

Usman Nurmagomedov carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.