Khamzat Chimaev vs Rhys McKee
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-1-0Record15-7-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'1"
75" Reach78"
186 lbsWeight170 lbs
Allstars Training CenterTeamNext Generation Northern Ireland
What's at stake
Khamzat Chimaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Rhys McKee carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1836
If they lose-24→ 1804
If they win+24→ 1672
If they lose-8→ 1640
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1750 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1644 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Khamzat ChimaevRhys McKee
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Khamzat Chimaev81%
Rhys McKee 19%Elo baseline: 74%
The Combat Edge model makes Khamzat Chimaev a 81% favorite over Rhys McKee in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).
Khamzat Chimaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1828 to 1648, a 180-point edge.
Khamzat Chimaev finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Rhys McKee 93%.
Rhys McKee carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.